APA
▲ CALLTarget hit+65.8% est. P&LPublished Sep 2, 2026, 1:53 PM UTC · confidence 78/100
Why the bot fired this
Verbatim from the signal record — the same bullets posted to Discord.
Technical analysis
- EMA 9/21/50 bullishly stacked
- MACD bullish crossover with positive histogram
- Supertrend bullish
Options flow
- No contracts passed liquidity filters at target expiration; widening search
- Strike delta 0.39 is in the target 0.3-0.45 range
- IV proxy percentile 56 - options reasonably priced relative to realized vol
News & sentiment
- News sentiment positive (avg compound 0.30 over 10 headlines)
ML model
- XGBoost model(s) estimate 56% probability of a decisive up move -> leans CALL
Position sizing
- Moderate conviction - consider sizing smaller than your max, or skipping if you want to be selective
Exit plan
- Consider closing by 2026-09-22 to avoid the worst of late theta decay
Summary
- Direction: CALL (bullish conviction score +90.3/100 from multi-timeframe technicals)
Contract
- Published
- Sep 2, 2026, 1:53 PM UTC
- Underlying at signal
- $44.12
- Contract
- CALL · $46.0 strike · exp 2026-09-25
- Est. premium (mid)
- $1.22
- Delta / IV
- 0.39 / 47%
- Target / stop (underlying)
- $46.99 / $42.40
- Risk : reward
- 2.53 : 1
- Closed
- Sep 15, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Layer scores
- Technical90/100
Multi-timeframe trend, momentum, patterns
- Options flow65/100
Liquidity, IV vs. realized, unusual volume
- Sentiment61/100
News tone, analyst skew, earnings proximity
- ML model56/100
XGBoost probability of a decisive move
- Market regime50/100
SPY trend / VIX alignment with the trade
Signals published before 7 October 2026 came from a five-layer blend: confidence is a weighted blend of these, plus an agreement bonus when the ML model and the technical read point the same way. Newer signals come from the rules screener, where the 0–100 score ranks setups and is not a win probability.
Estimated P&L for a closed signal is the Black-Scholes value of the contract at the underlying’s target or stop price, versus the estimated entry premium — not a broker fill. It excludes commissions, slippage, and early assignment. Not financial advice.